Guwahati: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to return to power in Assam for a third straight term, according to a latest Tracker Poll conducted by People’s Pulse Research Organization. The survey was carried out between November 15 and December 31, 2025, across the state.
As per the poll, the BJP is expected to emerge as the single largest party with 69 to 74 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, crossing the majority mark on its own. Along with its NDA allies, the BJP-led alliance is projected to win around 90 seats, indicating a strong and comfortable victory.
Political analyst Dr. Rajan Pandey, who compiled the report, said the poll reflects strong public support for the BJP. He said the party’s success is driven by welfare schemes, strong organisation, and support from multiple communities. He also pointed out that the opposition remains weak and divided, with parties like AIUDF and UPPL struggling to stay relevant.
Seat and Vote Share Projection
According to the survey, the Congress is expected to win 25 to 29 seats, far behind the BJP. NDA allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) may get 8 to 11 seats, while Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) could secure 8 to 10 seats. Smaller parties like AIUDF, UPPL, Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), CPI(M), and independents are projected to win very few or no seats.
In terms of vote share, BJP is expected to get 39% votes, while Congress may receive 37%. Though the gap is small, it is enough to give BJP a big advantage in seats. The Congress has gained some votes mainly due to the decline of AIUDF, especially among Muslim voters, but this has not translated into seats because of delimitation and weak alliances.
Chief Minister Choice
In the Chief Minister preference poll, Himanta Biswa Sarma leads with 30% support, followed closely by Sarbananda Sonowal (28%) and Gaurav Gogoi (27%). Other leaders remain far behind. The poll notes that while Gaurav Gogoi is personally popular, it has not helped the Congress party as a whole.
Public Opinion Favors BJP
On key questions, BJP enjoys a clear edge. About 48% people feel BJP is better for Assam’s development, compared to 38% for Congress. Nearly 55% believe BJP will form the next government, and the same percentage feels the party deserves another chance.
The survey highlights BJP’s strong support among caste Assamese, Ahoms, OBCs, tribal communities, tea tribes, and Hindu Bengali voters. Muslims largely support Congress, rejecting AIUDF. Welfare schemes have helped BJP build loyalty, though some dissatisfaction exists in pockets.
Regional Trends
- Barak Valley: NDA may win 8–10 out of 13 seats
- Upper Assam: Strong NDA dominance
- Middle Assam: NDA strong in tribal areas, mixed elsewhere
- Lower Assam: Delimitation favours NDA; BJP-BPF likely to sweep BTAD areas
Survey Methodology
The survey covered all 35 districts and 126 Assembly constituencies. A total of 5,000 respondents were interviewed through face-to-face interactions. The study was conducted by a team of 16 researchers over 45 days using a structured and balanced sampling method.
