With polling for the Assam Legislative Assembly Election now completed, the political atmosphere across the state has turned intense, giving rise to several new equations and uncertainties. In the electoral contest across 126 constituencies, the possibility of major political surprises has emerged this time. Particularly, direct contests among sitting MLAs, denial of party tickets, and instances of party switching have made the election far more dramatic.
Nearly 100 sitting MLAs have once again entered the electoral fray in this election. However, political observers believe that at least eight of them may not find their way back to Dispur due to direct confrontations and triangular contests in several constituencies. The emergence of “MLA versus MLA” battles has become one of the most striking features of this election.
In seven constituencies, as many as 15 sitting MLAs are contesting against each other. In these seats, two incumbent MLAs are locked in direct battles, making the defeat of at least one almost inevitable.
One of the most discussed contests is in Sivasagar, where Raijor Dal president and sitting MLA Akhil Gogoi is facing a challenge from Amguri MLA Pradip Hazarika. The contest has drawn significant attention across the state.
Similarly, in the Bhawanipur–Sarbhog constituency of Barpeta district, BJP MLA Ranjit Das of Bajali is facing CPI(M) MLA Manoranjan Talukdar of Sarbhog in a direct battle. In this constituency, whichever candidate loses will inevitably join the list of former MLAs.
A similar political equation has emerged in Rupahihat constituency of Nagaon district, where AIUDF MLA Nurul Huda is being challenged by Aminul Islam, the MLA from Dhing. Here too, one of the two sitting MLAs is certain to face defeat.
In the Barak Valley, the election scenario is even more complex. In the Katlichera–Algapur constituency, a triangular contest among three sitting MLAs — Zakir Hussain Laskar, Nizam Uddin Choudhury, and Sujam Uddin Laskar — has intensified the political battle. With three incumbents in the fray, at least two of them are almost certain to lose, effectively becoming former MLAs even before the results are declared. All three leaders had previously represented Hailakandi, Katlichera, and Algapur constituencies respectively.
A similar contest is visible in Goalpara district, where Congress candidate A.K. Rashid Alam is facing Abdur Rashid Mandal, the sitting MLA of Goalpara West, in the Goalpara East constituency. Mandal is contesting this election from the Raijor Dal, making the contest politically significant in the district.
The Mandia constituency has also witnessed a similar scenario. AIUDF MLA Rafiqul Islam is being challenged by Sherman Ali Ahmed, who is contesting from the Trinamool Congress. In the 2021 Assembly election, the two leaders had been elected from Jania and Baghbar constituencies respectively.
In the Chenga constituency, AIUDF MLA Ashraful Hussain is contesting against Congress MLA Abdur Rahim Ahmed from Barpeta, ensuring that one of the two sitting MLAs will lose his seat.
Meanwhile, a different political equation has emerged in Tamulpur and Jorhat constituencies, where the contest could lead to the resignation of either an MP or an MLA. In Jorhat, if Gaurav Gogoi wins, sitting MLA Hiten Goswami will have to vacate his Assembly seat. Similarly, in Tamulpur, if UPPL leader Pramod Boro wins, Biswajit Daimary will have to give up his MLA position. In both cases, the respective Lok Sabha seats could also fall vacant.
Another significant development in this election is that the ruling BJP has denied party tickets to several sitting MLAs. Reports indicate that at least 19 BJP MLAs were not given party nominations this time. A similar situation has been observed in other parties such as the Congress, BPF, AIUDF, and Asom Gana Parishad, where several incumbents were denied tickets.
Amid all these political developments, one thing appears increasingly clear — the next Assam Legislative Assembly may witness the absence of several familiar political faces. The direct clashes between sitting MLAs and multi-cornered contests have made the political future of many incumbents uncertain.
Now, the entire state awaits the counting of votes, which will determine which sitting MLAs will return to Dispur and which leaders will have to begin a new chapter in Assam’s political landscape.
