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Online Desk : Bihar appears set for another Nitish Kumar-led government, as most exit polls have predicted a clear majority for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP and JD(U).
As the second and final phase of polling concluded tuesday, speculation has intensified over who will form the next government. However, exit poll figures released this evening suggest that the NDA is well ahead of the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) led by the RJD and Congress.
According to various surveys:
- Matrize IANS predicts NDA: 147–167, Mahagathbandhan: 70–90, Others: 2–7
- People’s Pulse projects NDA: 133–159, Mahagathbandhan: 75–101
- People’s Insight gives NDA: 133–148, Mahagathbandhan: 87–102
- Chanakya estimates NDA: 130–138, Mahagathbandhan: 100–108
- Pollstrat forecasts NDA: 133–148, Mahagathbandhan: 87–102
- JVS Polls suggests NDA: 135–150, Mahagathbandhan: 88–103
- Poll Diary gives a landslide with NDA: 184–209, Mahagathbandhan: 32–49
- Times Now shows NDA: 143, Mahagathbandhan: 95
- Dainik Bhaskar predicts NDA: 145–160, Mahagathbandhan: 73–91, Others: 5–10
According to these estimates, BJP and JD(U) are set to comfortably cross the 122-seat majority mark in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, while the RJD–Congress–Left alliance may once again sit in opposition.
Interestingly, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is also projected to win around five seats, marking its debut in Bihar politics.
Bihar recorded 65.08% turnout in the first phase and 68.67% in the second. The NDA contested 101 seats each for the BJP and JD(U), while LJP (RV) contested 29 seats and HAM(S) and RLM contested six each. On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan fielded RJD (143), Congress (61), CPI (9), CPI(M) (4), CPI(ML) (20), and VIP (15) candidates.
While Nitish Kumar’s return appears likely, political observers note that his future will depend largely on the BJP’s seat tally, as the saffron party is expected to emerge stronger within the alliance.
In 2020, the NDA had secured 125 seats — BJP (74), JD(U) (43), VIP (4), and HAM (4). The RJD had then won 75 seats, emerging as the single-largest party despite most exit polls underestimating its performance.
The final results on November 14 will confirm whether Nitish Kumar retains power or faces a new challenge from Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD-led bloc.
